M.S THESIS PRESENTATION: Title: BAYESIAN IN-SERVICE FAILURE RATE MODELS

Date/Time
Date(s) - 02/08/2022
10:00 - 11:30

Categories No Categories


Title: BAYESIAN IN-SERVICE FAILURE RATE MODELS by Tolunay Alankaya  , MS Industrial Engineering

Advisor: Prof. Dr. Savaş Dayanık

Date: Aug 02, 2022 10:00 AM Istanbul

https://zoom.us/j/6547746234?pwd=ZENZNWtCbUlQRjVMMVFneWtxZGlzZz09

Meeting ID: 654 774 6234

Passcode: 478379

Abstract:

Predicting the number of appliance failures during service after sales is crucial for manufacturers to detect production errors and plan spare part inventories. We provide a two-phased Bayesian model that predicts the number of refrigerators that fail after sales.

Thus the study focuses on both sales forecasting and failure detection. The two-phased Bayesian model is trained by the datasets provided by a leading durable home appliances company. The accuracy results show that one-level models are inferior to multi-level models when the data are sparse.

We conclude that hierarchical Bayesian models are preferable since they can naturally capture the heterogeneity across all blends of attributes.