A Simulation Model for Breast Cancer Epidemiology in Turkey
M.S. Thesis Presentation by
Kumru Ada
Department of Industrial Engineering
Bilkent University
Breast cancer has a vital importance in women's life. In the world, breast cancer incidence and mortality rates are increasing. Considering the burden of disease, every year 1.4 million women get breast cancer and about 500,000 women die due to breast cancer. Breast cancer has a high incidence and mortality rates especially in developing countries, where late diagnosis of cancer is also increasing the disease burden. Lack of knowledge of the exact causes of breast cancer increases the importance of early detection. The most effective way of early detection is to apply mammography screening. Screening the accurate target population increases the rate of early detection of breast cancer and lessens the economic and health burden of disease. In this study, two simulation models were constructed in order to analyze the population-based mammography screening programs for Turkey. One model was run for 10 years for validation purpose while the other one was run for the women born in 1980 during their lifetime to analyze several screening programs. Costs and health outcomes of the screening policies were examined by doing cost-effectiveness analysis. By doing this analysis with second model, a good screening policy is determined in terms of beginning and final age of screening and screening frequency.
Keywords: Breast cancer, screening programs, mammography, simulation
This thesis is supervised by
Asst. Prof. Özlem Çavuş
Prof. Dr. İhsan Sabuncuoğlu
