Macro-level Hybrid Energy Planning Model with Intermittent Renewable Sources, India Case Study
Ayşe Selin Kocaman
Current supply for electricity generation mostly relies on fossil fuels. International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that primary sources of electricity in 2011 consisted of 41.3% coal, 21.9% natural gas and 4.8% petroleum summing up to a 68% share for fossil fuels in primary electricity consumption in the world. However, fossil fuels are finite and their combustion results in greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to global warming and health hazards. Therefore, energy models that involve clean and renewable energy sources are necessitated to ease the concerns on the electricity generation that meets the projected demand.
In this talk, we explore the challenges, opportunities and ways of integrating renewable sources into the grid. We discuss the problem of modeling hydro and solar energy production, allocation and storage, capturing the stochastic nature of hourly supply and demand data. Here, we mathematically model two hybrid energy generation and allocation systems where time variability and uncertainty of energy sources and demand is balanced using the water stored in the reservoirs. In the first model, we use conventional hydro power stations (incoming stream flows are stored in large dams and water release is deferred until it is needed) and in the second model, we use pumped hydro stations (water is pumped from lower reservoir to upper reservoir during periods of low demand to be released for generation when demand is high). An innovative contribution of this work is the establishment of a new perspective to energy modeling by including fine-grained sources of uncertainty such as stream flow and solar radiations in hourly level as well as spatial location of supply and demand in national level. The model will be presented for a future scenario of India and helps answer whether solar energy, in addition to huge hydropower potential in Himalayas, would be enough to meet growing electricity demand if fossil fuels could be almost completely phased out from electricity generation.
Selin Kocaman is an Assistant Professor in Industrial Engineering Department at Bilkent University. She received her B.S. degree in Industrial Engineering from Bogazici University, M.S. degree in Operations Research and Ph.D. degree in Sustainable Energy, both from Columbia University. At Columbia University, she was a member of Sustainable Engineering Lab. Her research interests include energy infrastructure design and planning, optimization of electric power systems, sustainable energy resources and sustainable development. Her work has been recognized by Production and Operations Management Society (POMS) by winning College of Sustainable Operations Ph.D. Proposal Award (2011).